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June 18th, 2015
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We can say with more certainty at the end of the final session of the 41st Parliament how many MPs will be retiring at the next election, but there may still be a few shoes left to drop.
[Welcome, cá độ bóng đá trên điện thoại National Newswatch readers!]
On the home page of this website, I now have a table titled "Current Party Standings and Nominations Metrics", which is pulled directly from the Pundits' Guide database, and currently shows the following:
- 4 vacant seats: 2 Conservatives, and 2 Independents (1 elected a Conservative, and 1 as a New Democrat, fyi)
- 54 retiring incumbents: 30 Conservatives, 14 NDPers, 5 Liberals, 1 Bloc Quebecois, and 4 Independents (1 each elected under the CPC, NDP, Lib & BQ banners)
The breakdown by party is as follows:
- CPC: 34 = 30 current MPs retiring + 2 seats already vacant (John Baird in Ottawa West-Nepean, ON & Patrick Brown in Barrie, ON) + James Lunney now sitting as an Independent, but elected as a Conservative, is retiring + Dean Del Mastro last sitting as an Independent, but elected as a Conservative, has already resigned his Peterborough, ON seat and it's vacant
- NDP: 14 = 12 current MPs retiring (including 3 who lost their nominations) + Sana Hassainia now sitting as an Independent, but elected as a New Democrat, is retiring + Glenn Thibeault last sitting as an Independent, but elected as a New Democrat, has already resigned his Sudbury, ON seat and it's vacant
- Lib: 6 = 5 current MPs retiring (including 1 elected as a New Democrat) + Massimo Pacetti now sitting as an Independent, but elected as a Liberal, is retiring
- BQ: 2 = 1 current MP retiring (Claude Patry, who was elected as a New Democrat) + André Bellavance now sitting as an Independent, but elected with the Bloc Quebecois, is retiring
If you've been following the storylines to date, a few outstanding questions were settled this week:
- Conservative MP Leon Benoit did confirm his intention to retire, meaning he won't be contesting the Peace River, AB nomination. His Vegreville-Wainwright, AB riding got split up into many pieces, and he seemed to lose the game of nomination musical chairs.
- The other two NDP MPs who lost their nominations – Tyrone Benskin and Francine Raynault – were among the retiring NDP MPs feted at their Tuesday night caucus party. Technically they could have run as independents or for another party, but that will not be the case, so we can include them in the retired count now.
- Shefford, QC NDP MP Rejean Genest just announced his retirement at the Wednesday caucus meeting, for family reasons. A first nomination contestant announced in his riding the same day. His retirement became public first thing this morning.
Retiring (and Resigned) Incumbents, 41st Parliament, by Year First Elected
(updated to June 18, 2015)
|Total = 41||30 + 2 vacant||14||5||1||4 + 2 vacant|
The shoes still left to drop are below:
- We learned today that Conservative MP Lynne Yelich is being challenged for her party's nomination in Saskatoon-Grasswood, SK by CTV Saskatoon sports director Kevin Waugh.
- Julian Fantino has said several times he'll seek the Conservative nomination in Vaughan-Woodbridge, ON, but no movement has occurred on that nomination whatsoever, and he's refused further comment to his local paper.
- Laval NDP MP José Nunez-Melo is being challenged by two women for the nomination in his renamed riding of Vimy, QC. The meeting hasn't been scheduled yet, and in fact no NDP nomination meetings have been scheduled in Québec seats for several weeks now.
- Western Arctic NDP MP Dennis Bevington has not yet announced (nor apparently really decided) whether he will run again in the renamed riding of Northwest Territories, NT.
- NDP Leader Tom Mulcair is not yet renominated in Outremont, QC, but that smells like a campaign event in waiting to me, and there's no hint he would be challenged.
- Conservative-turned-Liberal MP Eve Adams is still fighting for the Eglinton-Lawrence, ON nomination against Marco Mendocino. There is no indication when that meeting will be called.
- Louis Plamondon of the Bloc Québécois is not yet renominated, but continues to say he will run again in the new riding of Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel, QC
- Liberal-turned-Independent MP Scott Andrews has not yet ruled out running as an Independent in Avalon, NL.
Retiring Incumbents and Open Seats, 1993 GE – 42nd GE
|General Election||Seats||Retiring Incumbents*||New Seats||Open Seats|
So, we have 58 seats either open or already vacant, and I expect as many as 6 others will wind up being open by the time all is said and done. Coupled with the 30 new seats that makes for a record high number of open seats. And that's not even including the cases of the sitting MPs running in different seats, as we discussed a few posts ago.
You can see the full, detailed list of Retiring MPs here (scroll down a bit after clicking it):
or find that link on the main page under the heading "Open Seats / Retiring MPs" as the "Open Seats List".
I've been peppered with questions about these counts all afternoon, so it will save everyone time if I just blogged the answers. Meanwhile, we will bid a fond farewell to the 41st Parliament any minute. Let the 42nd be a kinder, gentler one, please! I've really reached my fill of nastiness in this Parliament.